Fish Draw probability
Understand the chance of a direct draw using verified Free and Epic probabilities.
Direct draw probabilities
Use the verified Free and Epic Fish Draw tables. These are probabilities of direct outcomes, not a luck multiplier.
Assumes independent draws with constant probabilities. Free draw availability is not modeled.
Your results
Statistical estimate — not guaranteed.
- Success chance per draw
- 10%
- Expected direct successes
- 1
- Expected total D-equivalents
- 32
- Cost of entered draws
- 2,000 diamonds
- Draws for 95% confidence
- 29
2,000 diamondsChance = 1 − (1 − p)draws, where p includes the target rank and all higher ranks. Expected values are averages, not guarantees. This direct-draw calculation does not include merges.
Expected Epic draw cost
Statistical estimate — not guaranteed.
- Exact missing D-equivalents
- 697
- Expected Epic draws until target
- 218.48
- Expected diamond cost
- 43,695.31 diamonds
- Expected surplus in D-rank equivalents
- 2.12
| Rank | Free Fish Draw | Epic Fish Draw |
|---|---|---|
| D | 60% | 0% |
| C | 30% | 60% |
| B | 10% | 30% |
| A | 0% | 10% |
| Cost | 0 diamonds | 200 diamonds |
| Expected value | 1.6 D-rank equivalents | 3.2 D-rank equivalents |
Higher ranks have 0% direct probability in these draw tables. The theoretical long-run Epic cost is 62.5 diamonds per D-equivalent.
How the stopping calculation works
Epic outcomes add 2, 4, or 8 D-equivalents with probabilities 60%, 30%, and 10%. Let n = ceil(missing D-rank equivalents / 2). The recurrence E(n) = 1 + 0.6 E(n−1) + 0.3 E(n−2) + 0.1 E(n−4), with E(n ≤ 0) = 0, gives expected draws until the remaining target is met or exceeded.
We evaluate this exact recurrence numerically using matrix exponentiation, then round the display to two decimals. It includes the final draw overshooting the target. Simply dividing missing value by 3.2 does not include that overshoot.
Assumes independent draws with constant probabilities, immediate rank-value merging, and no limits or bonuses. Epic draws cannot supply a D-rank target; higher outcomes cannot be split. For targets below A, a rank-aware acquisition estimate is not yet available. Free draws have no diamond cost, but their availability or waiting time is not modeled.